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Nama: Microsoft Corp
Kode Ticker: NASDAQ: MSFT
Harga: 301.14 $ (per 3-Sep-2021)
Kategori: Large-Growth
Microsoft mengembangkan dan melisensikan perangkat lunak konsumen dan bisnis. Ia dikenal dengan sistem operasi Windows dan rangkaian produk Office. Perusahaan ini dibagi ke dalam tiga segmen luas yang berukuran sama: produktivitas dan proses bisnis (Microsoft Office lawas, Office 365 berbasis cloud, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), cloud intelijen (infrastruktur dan platform sebagai layanan penawaran Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), dan komputasi yang lebih pribadi (Klien Windows, Xbox, pencarian Bing, iklan tampilan, dan laptop Surface, tablet, dan desktop).
Tinjauan Industri
Besarnya pasar untuk operating system adalah 191,12 miliar$ pada tahun 2021 dengan tingkat pertumbuhan tahunan gabungan (CAGR) sebesar 12%. Meskipun masih mendominasi, pendapatan Microsoft dari Windows hanya sebesar 23 miliar saja pada tahun 2021.
Sebagian besar pendapatan Microsoft justru kini kebanyakan dari cloud, yakni 93 miliar$. Potensi TAM cloud computing adalah 446 miliar $ dengan pertumbuhan 18% tiap tahunnya [1].
Pesaing utama Microsoft adalah open source operating system seperti Linux yg dimiliki IBM (NASDAQ:IBM) serta Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Sedangkan untuk cloud, ada Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), IBM, Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) dan Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Ringkasan Keuangan
Microsoft memiliki bisnis model yang sangat kuat dan bagus, sehingga memenuhi semua kriteria checklist kami kecuali FCF/Net income sedikit margin saja. Namun ini bisa dijelaskan dengan meningkatnya capital expenditure oleh Microsoft karena banyak berinvestasi untuk masa depan. Dan ini tidak mengkhawatrikan karena pertumbuhan cashflow rata-rata positif dari tahun ke tahun (20%).
Ringkasan Investasi
Di bawah pengawasan yang saya yakini akan dianggap sebagai CEO legendaris Satya Nadella, raksasa teknologi yang berbasis di Redmond, Washington ini telah terbukti menjadi pemenang terlepas dari lingkungan ekonomi atau pasar. Di bawah kepemimpinan Nadella, Microsoft tumbuh dengan kapitalisasi market tertinggi dibanding perusahaan teknologi raksasa lainnya., yakni 261 miliar tiap tahunnya selama hampir 8 tahun kepemimpinannya.
Salah satu faktor utama adalah proses transisi yang sukses dari operating system lama ke operating system yang berbasis cloud. Servis Cloud Azure sendiri tumbuh paling pesat dibanding pesaing-pesaingnya dan mulai mendominasi pasaran.
Server product dan cloud service tumbuh 34% tiap tahunnya dengan Azure sendiri naik 51% dari 2020 [2]. Capital expenditure yang tinggi untuk terus mengembangkan bisnis cloud ke depan.
Penilaian
| Methode | Target Price | Potensi cuan | Periode |
| Discounted Cash Flow | 335.0 | 10% | 1-3 tahun |
| Residual Earning | 349.1 | 14% | 1-3 tahun |
| Technical Analysis | 341.0 | 12% | 3-6 bulan |
| Tipranks analyst average (reference) | 329.0 | 9% | NA |
| Artifical Intelligence forecast Kosho AI (reference) | NA | 6.7% | 3 bulan |
[2] https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/0a2b8528-fb8b-4d11-8da2-fd9fa988a155
*** Ini adalah pendapat penulis, silakan berkonsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan Anda dan lakukan uji tuntas Anda sendiri sebelum berinvestasi. Pundireceh tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala kewajiban yang terkait dengan risiko investasi.
#Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) sesuai dengan persyaratan syariah. Kondisi bisnis, produk, dan utangnya memenuhi kriteria Hukum Islam dan halal untuk diinvestasikan, berdasarkan analisis aplikasi Zoya (https://zoya.finance/).
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Background
Name: Microsoft Corp
Ticker Code: NASDAQ: MSFT
Price: 301.14$ (as of 3-Sep-2021)
Category: Large-Growth
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Industry Overview
The market size for operating systems will be 191.12 billion$ in 2021 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%. Although it still dominates, Microsoft’s revenue from Windows is only 23 billion in 2021.
Most of Microsoft’s revenue is now mostly from the cloud, which is $93 billion. The potential of TAM cloud computing is $446 billion with 18% annual growth [1].
Microsoft’s main competitors are open source operating systems such as Linux, which is owned by IBM (NASDAQ:IBM) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). As for the cloud, there are Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), IBM, Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Financial Summary
Microsoft has a very strong and good business model, so it meets all of our checklist criteria except for FCF/Net income by small margin. However, this can be explained by the increase in capital expenditure by Microsoft because it invests a lot for the future. And this is not worrying because the average cashflow growth is positive from year to year (20%).
Investment Summary
Under the leadership of what I believe will be considered the legendary CEO of Satya Nadella, this Redmond, Washington-based tech giant has proven to be a winner regardless of the economic or market environment. Under Nadella’s leadership, Microsoft grew with the highest market capitalization of any technology giant, which was 261 billion annually during his nearly 8 years of leadership.
One of the main factors is the successful transition from the old operating system to the cloud-based operating system. Azure Cloud Services itself grew the fastest compared to its competitors and began to dominate the market.
Server products and cloud services are growing 34% annually with Azure alone up 51% from 2020 [2]. High capital expenditure to continue to develop the cloud business in the future.
Valuation
| Method | Target Price | Profit potential | Period |
| Discounted Cash Flow | 335.0 | 10% | 1-3 years |
| Residual Earning | 349.1 | 14% | 1-3 years |
| Technical Analysis | 341.0 | 12% | 3-6 months |
| Tipranks analyst average (reference) | 329.0 | 9% | NA |
| Artifical Intelligence forecast Kosho AI (reference) | NA | 6.7% | 3 month |
[2] https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/0a2b8528-fb8b-4d11-8da2-fd9fa988a155
*** This is the opinion of the author, please consult your financial advisor and do your own due diligence before investing. Pundireceh is not responsible for any obligations related to investment risk.
#Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) is sharia compliant. Its business conditions, products and debts meet the criteria of Islamic Law and are halal to invest in, based on Zoya’s application analysis (https://zoya.finance/).